湯姆‧科頓議員報告(八)——《戰勝中共國:針對性脫鉤與經濟持久戰》

五月花寫作組 | 翻譯:文蕭 | 校對:紫丁香 | 編輯、美工、發稿:滅共小宇宙

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湯姆‧科頓議員報告序言——《戰勝中共國:針對性脫鉤與經濟持久戰》

湯姆‧克頓議員報告(一)——《戰勝中共國:針對性脫鉤與經濟持久戰》

湯姆‧克頓議員報告(二)——《戰勝中共國:針對性脫鉤與經濟持久戰》

湯姆‧科頓議員報告(三)——《戰勝中共國:針對性脫鉤與經濟持久戰》

湯姆‧科頓議員報告(四)——《戰勝中共國:針對性脫鉤與經濟持久戰》

湯姆‧科頓議員報告(五)——《戰勝中共國:針對性脫鉤與經濟持久戰》

湯姆‧科頓議員報告(六)——《戰勝中共國:針對性脫鉤與經濟持久戰》

湯姆‧科頓議員報告(七)——《戰勝中共國:針對性脫鉤與經濟持久戰》


PRESERVE U.S. DOLLAR DOMINANCE

保持美國的美元優勢

The dollar trading system allows the United States to maintain its global financial preeminence and weaken its adversaries through non-military means. Preserving this pillar of American power therefore is a key element of competing with China. 

美元貿易體系使美國能夠保持其全球金融的主導地位,並通過非軍事手段削弱對手。因此,維護美國力量的這一支柱是與中共國競爭的關鍵要素。

The dollar is the undisputed king of global exchange, much to the CCP’s chagrin. Dollars accounted for 61 percent of known central bank foreign exchange reserves in the second quarter of 2020.132 By contrast, the Euro accounted for 20 percent of official reserves. China’s Renminbi barely cracked two percent.133 The dollar likewise is the currency of choice for virtually every kind of exchange across borders, from oil sales to debt contracts. 

美元是無可爭議的全球貨幣兌換之王,這令中共十分懊惱。2020年第二季度,美元占已知央行外匯儲備的61%。相比之下,歐元占官方儲備的20%。中共國的人民幣勉強突破2%。同樣地,美元也是幾乎所有類型跨境交易的首選貨幣,從石油銷售到債務合同。 

The ubiquity of the dollar allows the United States to weaken its enemies at relatively low cost. With the stroke of a pen, the United States can inflict tremendous damage, often equal to what otherwise could be achieved only through military operations—but without violence. For example,  Iran’s economy shrank 5.4 percent in 2018, the year the Trump administration reimposed sanctions,  and shrank again by 6.5 percent in 2019.134 The Iranian Rial, which traded at roughly 40,000-to one against the dollar on the eve of those sanctions, traded at over 300,000-to-one in October  2020.135,136 U.S. sanctions have also helped weaken the regimes of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Vladimir Putin in Russia.137 Sanctions dampened Russia’s economic growth by as much as six percent from 2014-2018.138 

美元的普遍存在使美國能夠以相對較低的成本削弱敵人。美國只要動動筆,就能給對手造成巨大的損失,往往相當於只有通過軍事行動才能達到的效果——但沒有暴力。例如,在川普政府再次實施製裁的2018年,伊朗經濟萎縮了5.4%,2019年再度萎縮了6.5%。伊朗里亞爾在製裁前夕對美元的匯率為4萬比1,而2020年10月,這一匯率超過了30萬比1。美國的製裁也幫助削弱了敘利亞的巴沙爾·阿薩德和俄羅斯的弗拉基米爾·普京政權。2014-2018年,製裁使俄羅斯的經濟增長受到抑制,降低了6%。

Still, every major sanctions designation by the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) puts the U.S. dollar system at incrementally greater risk by making the dollar less appealing as a reserve currency and less reliable as a medium of exchange. This tension between the power of sanctions and the threat such sanctions pose to the dollar must be managed carefully. 

然而,美國財政部外國資產控制辦公室(OFAC)指定的每項重大製裁措施,都使美元體系面臨更大的風險,使美元作為儲備貨幣的吸引力和作為交易媒介的可靠性降低。製裁力度與製裁對美元構成的潛在威脅之間的這種緊張關系必須謹慎處理。

As Washington activates the Treasury Department against Chinese entities that violate U.S. law or threaten U.S. national security interests, it must simultaneously implement policies to modernize the dollar and make it more attractive to legitimate economic actors.  

華盛頓在啟動財政部打擊違反美國法律或威脅美國國家安全利益的中共國實體時,必須同時實施使美元現代化的策略,並使其對合法的經濟行為體更具吸引力。

SLOW CHINA’S GROWTH 

減緩中共國的增長

The CCP’s ambitious political goals depend on China’s ability to become wealthier than the United States. It may have a finite window in which to achieve this goal, given impending demographic pressures.139 Beginning in 2030, the Chinese economy will lose an estimated five to ten million working-age citizens each year. By 2050, the Chinese working-age population is expected to have shrunk by 180 million people, slightly less than the entire U.S. working-age population today.140 Slower growth would force the CCP to make difficult choices about where to direct its resources.  Should it invest in anti-ship missiles aimed at U.S. warships in the South China Sea, long-range nuclear weapons, national champions like Huawei, security cameras and secret police at home, or other priorities? A China with slower growth means a CCP that has a harder time choosing “all of the above.” Resource constraints could bind the CCP just as it has to contend with a shrinking workforce and rapidly aging population, which has grown accustomed to constant improvements in quality of life. 

中共雄心勃勃的政治目標能否實現取決於其是否有能力變得比美國更富有。考慮到即將到來的人口壓力,中共國可能只有有限的視窗來實現這一目標。從2030年開始,中共國經濟每年將失去約500萬至1000萬處於就業年齡的公民。到2050年,中共國的適齡工作人口預計減少1.8億,略低於目前美國整個勞動人口的總量。增長放緩將迫使中共在資源分配方面做出艱難的選擇。它應該投資於針對南海美國軍艦的反艦導彈、遠程核武器、華為這樣的國家冠軍企業、國內的安全監控攝像頭和秘密警察,還是其它優先事項呢?中共國經濟增速放緩意味著中共很難選擇“以上所有”。資源限制可能會束縛住中共,就像它必須應對不斷萎縮的勞動力和人口迅速老齡化一樣,因為中共已習慣了生活質量的不斷提高。

Additionally, slower growth likely would weaken public support for the CCP, which justifies its heavy-handed authoritarianism as the price for strong economic growth. Without consistent growth, it’s not clear how many of China’s 1.3 billion non-Party members would accept the CCP’s tactics—or even its rule. 

此外,增長放緩很可能會削弱大眾對中共的支持,並證明其暴虐的專制主義是強勁經濟增長的代價。如果沒有持續的增長,不清楚中共國13億非黨員中有多少人會接受中共的政策——甚至統治。

Slowing China’s growth is not without risk. Such a policy could compel Beijing to drastic measures abroad to distract from problems at home or out of recognition that its strategic window of opportunity is closing. Alternatively, slower growth could make the CCP more risk-averse. China’s boldness over the past three decades has increased with its strength. Only in the last decade, near the height of China’s power, has the CCP decided to stop hiding its capabilities and intentions and compete in the open. 

放緩中共國的增長並非沒有風險。這樣的政策可能會迫使北京在外部採取極端措施,以轉移對國內問題的註意力,或是出於對其戰略視窗正在關閉的認知。另外,增長放緩可能會使CCP更趨於規避風險。在過去的三十年中,中共的膽量隨著實力的增強而增加。直到最近十年,在中共國實力接近巔峰的時候,中共才決定停止隱藏自己的能力和意圖,並公開競爭。

However the CCP reacts, if China is placed on a slower growth trajectory, it will undeniably have fewer resources to control its citizens, intimidate its neighbors, and threaten the United States and its allies. 

無論中共如何反應,如果中共國處於較慢的增長軌道,無可否認地,它將擁有更少的資源來控制它的公民,恐嚇臨國、威脅美國及其盟國。

(未完待續)


原文鏈接:

Beat China: Targeted Decoupling and the Economic Long War


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