湯姆‧科頓議員報告序言——《戰勝中共國:針對性脫鉤與經濟持久戰》

五月花寫作組 | 翻譯:jiasen | 校對:傘兵 | 編輯、發稿:jamie(文胤)

Beat China: Targeted Decoupling and the Economic Long War

戰勝中共國:針對性脫鉤與經濟持久戰

The Trump administration’s most consequential policy will prove to be, in my opinion, a tougher stance against the People’s Republic of China. Since the 1980s, presidential candidates of both parties have run as tough on China, only to soften their positions once elected. But President Trump was the exception to this rule, and his administration pursued a campaign to harden our defenses against China’s aggressive behavior, and to sound the diplomatic alarm around the world.

在我看來,歷史將證明,川普政府最影響深遠的政策是對中共國採取強硬立場。自上世紀80年代以來,兩黨的總統候選人在競選時都會對中共國姿態強硬,當選後則會軟化立場,但川普總統是個例外。他的政府推行了一場運動,以加強我們對中共國侵略行為的防禦,並在全世界敲響外交警鐘。

This approach deserves praise, and it ought to form the starting point for a long-term, bipartisan national strategy. The ultimate objective of that strategy should be, to quote the document that launched this country’s ultimately successful strategy against the Soviet Union, the “breakup or the gradual mellowing” of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) power. Our strategy must take seriously the critical military, diplomatic, intelligence, and propaganda challenges posed by Beijing. And it must identify and account for the novel characteristics of strategic competition with an adversary such as the CCP in a nuclear and globalized age—especially the role played by economic policy. As Chairman of the Subcommittee on Economic Policy in the previous Congress, I convened two hearings on these matters in 2020, and directed my staff to conduct further research and outline a strategy for beating China within the economic dimension of our contest. This report is the fruit of that effort.

這種做法值得稱贊,而且這應該成為長期的兩黨國家戰略的起點。這個戰略的最終目標是對中共權力的 “瓦解或逐漸弱化”——出自啟動對蘇的成功戰略的文件。我們的戰略必須嚴肅對待中共國所構成的至關重要的挑戰,在軍事、外交、情報和宣傳層面。它必須確定並考慮到在核時代和全球化時代,與中共這樣的對手進行戰略競爭的新特點——特別是經濟政策所發揮的作用。作為上屆國會經濟政策小組委員會主席,我在2020年就這些問題召開了兩次聽證會,並帶領我的工作人員做進一步的研究,勾勒出在我們競爭的經濟層面上擊敗中國的戰略。本報告就是這一努力的成果。

 The economy is the primary theater of our conflict with China. We must, of course, maintain an unmatched military capable of defeating the People’s Liberation Army, as well as a diplomatic coalition to counter China. But this report focuses on economic integration between China and the United States and our allies—precisely because the CCP aspires to use this entanglement, which far exceeds trade flows between the free world and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, to displace us and reorder the globe according to its own ugly ideology without a major war. The CCP’s methods are subtle. The Party exploits the economic freedom of the United States and most of our allies—a freedom that allows countless actors to pursue their interests without consideration of an American “strategy.” No such condition exists in China, and the actions or potential actions of every Chinese firm are ultimately subordinate to the control of the Party.

經濟是我們與中共國沖突的主要戰場。當然,我們必須保持一支無懈可擊,能夠打敗解放軍的軍隊,以及一個抗衡中共國的外交聯盟。但這份報告的重點是中共國與美國和我們的盟友之間的經濟融合——正是因為中共渴望利用這種遠超冷戰時期自由世界與蘇聯之間的貿易往來的糾葛來取代我們,並在不發生大規模戰爭的情況下,按照自己醜陋的意識形態重塑全球秩序。中共的手段很微妙。它利用了美國和我們大多數盟友的經濟自由——這種自由讓無數個體可以在不考慮美國 “戰略 “的情況下追求自己的利益。在中共國不存在這樣的條件,每一個中共國公司的行動或潛在的行動最終都服從於共產黨的控制。

To be sure, the CCP will risk a military conflict to preserve its hold on power at home—for example, to secure control over Taiwan—or if tempted by American irresolution. But the CCP prefers a gradual, if tense, competition in which, decades from now, Americans wake up to discover ourselves poorer, weaker, and disadvantaged by a global order dictated by China. In this future, America’s freedom and prosperity gradually erode in areas where few pay much attention— telecommunications infrastructure, currency, critical manufacturing capabilities, supply chains for strategically significant resources like pharmaceuticals and rare-earth minerals, semiconductor design standards, and many more. By the time Americans realize the extent of our loss, the CCP hopes, it will be too late.

當然,中共會冒著軍事沖突的風險來維護其對國內權力的控制——例如,為了確保對台灣的控制——或者當被美國的猶豫所吸引。但是,中共更傾向於一種漸進的甚至高強度的競爭。在這種競爭中,幾十年後,美國人一覺醒來,會發現令自己更窮、更弱、更劣勢的全球秩序,受中共國支配。在那樣未來里,美國的自由和繁榮在很少有人關註的領域逐漸被侵蝕,這些領域包括:電信基礎設施、貨幣、核心製造能力、具有戰略意義的資源的供應鏈(如藥品和稀土礦產)、半導體設計標準等等。當美國人意識到我們的損失程度時,將為時已晚,而這正是中共國所希望的。

 Indeed, China’s strategic thinkers have openly discussed this objective for a while now. And China’s quiet maneuvering across many fields of competition confirms that the CCP actively pursues this objective. But General Secretary Xi Jinping’s signal mistake may have been to reveal China’s ambitions too early—to “ask the weight of the emperor’s cauldrons,” to quote an ancient Chinese proverb. This error, combined with the CCP’s brutal misrule and systemic deceit, which unleashed a plague upon the world, has opened eyes internationally to the China threat and created an opportunity for action. This opportunity must be seized.

 事實上,中國的戰略家公開討論這一目標已經有一段時間了。而中國在許多競爭領域的悄悄動作,也證實了中共一直積極追求這個目標。但習近平總書記的標志性錯誤可能是過早地暴露了中國的野心——用中國的一句古語來說,就是 “問鼎之輕重”。這個錯誤,再加上中共殘暴的錯誤統治和系統性的欺騙,給世界帶來了一場災難,這讓國際社會看到了中國的威脅,並創造了一個行動的機會。我們必須抓住這次機會。

How should America respond? How do we beat China in the economic theater of the conflict? This report proposes a strategy of targeted decoupling from China, matched with policies to mitigate the economic costs of this decoupling. We should, for instance, increase support for basic research and development, expand the American talent pool in advanced scientific and technological fields, deepen economic cooperation with our allies, and rebuild secure, scalable, domestic manufacturing in strategically significant sectors. We also must insist that our allies— whose freedom is also at stake, after all—pursue their own policies of targeted decoupling. Finally, the report calls for re-organizing parts of the federal government with a leading role to play in the economic theater of war.

美國應該如何應對?如何在經濟領域的對抗中擊敗中共國?這份報告提出了有針對性的與中國脫鉤的戰略,並配以相應的政策來減輕這種脫鉤的經濟成本。例如,我們應該加大對基礎研發的支持力度,擴大美國在先進科技領域的人才儲備,深化與盟友的經濟合作,並在具有戰略意義的部門重建安全、可擴展的國內製造業。我們還必須堅持要求我們的盟友——由於他們的自由也受到威脅——推行自己的針對性脫鉤政策。最後,報告呼籲重組部分聯邦政府使其在經濟戰中發揮主導作用。

Our nation has the political will to conceive and execute this strategy on a bipartisan and long-term basis—indeed, the scope of the Chinese threat likely will have a unifying effect on our politics. But any such strategy will have its critics. Some objections are trivial and incoherent, such as those from critics who believe America is too morally compromised to lead or even to defend itself. Such “woke” critics should realize that a racist, imperialist power does, in fact, exist—but in the form of the Han-supremacist CCP, which interns ethnic minorities in concentration camps, despoils the environment, and ruthlessly seizes territory to improve its military position and hoard access to resources.

我國有政治意願在跨黨派長期的基礎上構思和執行這一戰略——事實上,中共威脅的範圍很可能會對我們的政治產生一致的影響。但任何這樣的戰略都會有批評者。有些反對意見是微不足道和語無倫次的,比如那些認為美國在道德上過於退化,無法領導甚至自衛的批評者。這些 “清醒 “的批評者應該認識到,一個種族主義的帝國主義勢力真實存在——但其形式是漢族至上主義的中共,它把少數民族關進集中營,破壞環境,如狼似虎侵占領土以提高其軍事地位並囤積資源。

 More significant are critics who mistakenly deprioritize the real, concrete, present-day threat of China in favor of abstract “transnational” challenges. China’s leaders eagerly propose to cooperate on, say, climate change because they believe naïve, credulous American policymakers will offer concrete concessions for distant promises. Borrowing from J. Wellington Wimpy, they will gladly promise to reduce carbon emissions in 2060 if the United States would merely give them Taiwan today.

 更重要的是那些批評者錯誤地弱化中共國的威脅——真實,確鑿,此時此刻——而偏重於抽象的 “跨國 “挑戰。中共國領導人急切地提出在氣候變化等問題上與美國進行合作,因為他們相信天真、可信的美國政策制定者會以具體的讓步來換取遙遠的承諾。借用大力水手的話說,如果美國今天僅僅給他們台灣,他們會欣然承諾在2060年減少碳排放。

Finally, the most significant domestic resistance will come from the China Lobby: American and Western companies profiting off economic integration with China. The lure of China’s subsidized production capabilities and large and increasingly prosperous market has created a powerful coalition with great political influence. The China Lobby recoils at any claim that America’s prosperity and security—indeed, our very survival as a free nation—takes precedence over its bottom line.

最後,最重要的國內阻力將來自中共國的游說:美國和西方公司從與中國的經濟融合中獲利。中國的補貼生產能力和龐大且日益繁榮的市場的誘惑,造就了一個強大的聯盟,具有巨大的政治影響力。美國的繁榮和安全是我們作為自由國家的生存條件,優先於中共國說客團的底線,任何基於此的訴求都會讓其不寒而慄。

Sadly, the China Lobby, its influence, and the strategic advantage it provides Beijing, are no happy accidents for the Chinese Communist Party. As in so many other cases, the CCP has patiently cultivated its de facto allies in American business. During tense moments in trade negotiations with the Trump administration, China’s leaders explicitly asked American CEOs to lobby the administration and Congress on its behalf. They do the same through governors and mayors, university presidents, and influential cultural and media figures. The time has come, though, to call the China Lobby what it is, and ask if they really want to sell the proverbial rope that the communists in Beijing will use to hang us all.

可悲的是,中共游說團的影響力以及它為中共國提供的戰略優勢都不是什麼幸福的意外。與其他許多情況一樣,中共耐心地培養了它在美國商界的事實上的盟友。在與川普政府進行貿易談判的緊張時刻,中共領導人明確要求美國CEO代表中共國游說政府和國會。他們也通過州長和市長、大學校長以及有影響力的文化和媒體人士來做同樣的事情。不過,現在是時候跟中共國游說團挑明瞭,問問他們是否真的想賣給中共用來絞死我們的絞索。

The challenges of Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, and the Soviet Union all ended with total American victory; the Cold War was even won without direct military conflict. Once again, America confronts a powerful totalitarian adversary that seeks to dominate Eurasia and remake the world order, albeit with its own unique and subtle approach. China started its struggle for mastery against the United States decades ago, but only recently has America awoken to the challenge. Judging from history, a slow start is perhaps the American way of strategy. But so is victory.

來自納粹德國、日本帝國和蘇聯的挑戰,都以美國完勝而告終;美國更是在沒有直接軍事沖突的情況下取得了冷戰的勝利。美國再一次面對一個強大的極權主義對手,它試圖主導歐亞大陸,重塑世界秩序,盡管它有自己獨特而狡詐的方法。中共國早在幾十年前就發起了對美國的挑戰,但直到最近美國才醒悟過來,接受挑戰。從歷史來看,緩慢起步或許是美國的戰略之道,但勝利也是如此。

Senator Tom‧Cotton

參議員 湯姆‧科頓

February 2021

2021年2月

原文鏈接:

Beat China: Targeted Decoupling and the Economic Long War


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