美國2020年第三季度GDP增長率為33.1%,創歷史記錄!

新聞簡述:2020年10月29日消息,2020 年第三季度國內生產總值(GDP)的年增長率為 33.1%,超出了預期,並創下了歷史新高。GDP的增長幾乎是70年前創紀錄的兩倍。

圖片來源:https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/great-american-recovery-third-quarter-gdp-blows-past-expectations/

The Great American Recovery: Third Quarter GDP Blows Past Expectations

美國偉大的復蘇:第三季度國內生產總值超過了過去的期望

Economy & Jobs

經濟與就業

October 29, 2020

2020年10月29日 

After releasing his plan to reopen America safely in April, President Trump remarked that prior to the Coronavirus pandemic, the United States had “built the greatest economy anywhere in the world . . .  and we’re going to build it again.”

今年4月,川普總統宣佈了安全重新開放美國的計畫,之後他表示,在冠狀病毒大流行之前,美國已經“建立了世界上最偉大的經濟體… … 我們將再次建立它。”

At that time, the consensus among economic forecasters was that pandemic-induced lockdowns would result in a sharp economic contraction in the second quarter, and that the economy would experience tepid growth in the third quarter as it slowly clawed back pandemic losses. But because of the President’s pro-growth policies that set a strong pre-pandemic foundation—and the extraordinary speed and scale of the Administration’s support for America’s families and businesses—our nation’s recovery continues to exceed expectations.

當時,經濟預測人士的共識是,大流行病引發的封鎖將導致第二季度經濟急劇收縮,第三季度經濟增長將不慍不火,因為它將緩慢地收復大流行病造成的損失。但是,由於總統支持增長的政策奠定了強大的疫情爆發前基礎,以及政府對美國家庭和企業的支援速度和規模異乎尋常,我們國家的復蘇繼續超出預期。

This morning’s release of U.S. GDP for the third quarter of 2020 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) affirms President Trump’s statement that “we’re coming back, and we’re coming back strong.”

美國經濟分析局 (BEA) 今天上午發佈的2020年第三季度美國國內生產總值 (GDP) ,證實了川普總統的聲明,即“我們正在回歸,我們正在強勁回歸。”

The BEA estimates that real GDP grew 7.4 percent (33.1 percent at an annual rate) in the third quarter, the largest single quarter of economic growth on record and roughly twice the prior record of 3.9 percent (16.7 percent at an annual rate) set in the first quarter of 1950. This growth follows the most severe pandemic-induced contraction on record in the second quarter of 2020, which occurred as the government mandatorily shut down all but nonessential services, and Americans made sacrifices to slow the pandemic.

經濟分析局估計,第三季度的實際國內生產總值增長了 7.4%  (按年率計算為 33.1%) ,這是有記錄以來最大的單季度經濟增長,大約是 1950 年第一季度創下的 3.9%  (按年率計算為16.7%) 的兩倍。此前,2020 年第二季度出現了有記錄以來最嚴重的流感大流行引發的收縮,當時政府強制關閉了除非必要服務以外的所有服務,美國人也為減緩流感大流行做出了犧牲。

With the historic third-quarter growth, the United States in a single quarter has now re-covered two-thirds of the economic output lost due to the pandemic during the first half of the year (Figure 1). In the recovery from the 2008-09 recession, it took 4 times as long to regain the same share of lost economic output.

隨著歷史性的第三季度增長,美國在一個季度內已經恢復了今年上半年因大流行病而損失的經濟產出的三分之二 (圖 1)。在從 2008 年至 2009 年的衰退中復蘇的過程中,經濟產出損失所占的比例恢復到原來的4倍。

After data confirmed the recovery was well underway beginning in May, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in July projected a second quarter contraction rough-ly in line with the actual decline that occurred, though the CBO projected a third quarter growth rate of just 4.0 percent (17.0 percent at an annual rate). The strong footing of the United States economy prior to the pandemic contributed to the stronger-than-expected recovery our country is currently experiencing.

在資料確認經濟復蘇從5月份開始就已經進行良好之後,無黨派的國會預算辦公室 (CBO) 在 7 月份預測,第二季度的經濟萎縮與實際下降大致相符,儘管 CBO 預測第三季度的經濟增長率僅為 4.0%  (按年率計算為 17.0%)。在大流行病爆發之前,美國經濟的堅實基礎促進了我國目前正在經歷的比預期更強勁的復蘇。

The United States had the highest GDP growth rate among the G7 countries from 2017 to 2019, with growth more than double the G7 average. While the pandemic hit every major economy around the world, the United States experienced the least severe economic contraction of any major Western economy in the first half of 2020, with the Euro Area economy’s contraction being 1.5 times as severe as the contraction of the U.S. economy.

從 2017 年到 2019 年,美國的 GDP 增長率在七國集團中名列前茅,是七國集團平均增長率的兩倍以上。2020 年上半年,全球各主要經濟體都受到了大流行病的衝擊,而美國經濟的萎縮程度是西方主要經濟體中最輕的,歐元區經濟的萎縮程度是美國經濟萎縮程度的 1.5 倍。

A resurgence in consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of GDP, supported the historic third quarter GDP growth and reflects both the reopening of America’s businesses and the confidence of consumers to spend on goods and services once more. Consumer spending in the services sector alone accounted for nearly half of GDP growth in the third quarter. Greater third quarter spending on recreation, food, and accommodation services—sectors acutely impacted by lockdowns—alone accounted for one-fifth of total GDP growth in the third quarter.

占國內生產總值 (GDP) 三分之二的消費者支出的復蘇,支撐了歷史性的第三季度 GDP 增長,反映了美國企業的重新開張,以及消費者對商品和服務支出的信心。僅服務部門的消費支出就占到了第三季度 GDP 增長的近一半。第三季度,娛樂、食品和住宿服務行業的支出增加,僅此一項就占到了第三季度國內生產總值 (GDP) 總增長的五分之一。

The growth in the third quarter, and the particular strength of American consumers, also reflects the swiftness and magnitude of the aid the Administration provided directly to America’s families, workers, and small businesses. The $2.7 trillion in stimulus that the CARES Act and other pandemic-related legislation supplied is roughly 13 percent as a share of GDP. That is more than twice the size of the 2009 American Recovery and Rein-vestment Act (ARRA) as a share of GDP.

第三季度的經濟增長,以及美國消費者的特殊力量,也反映了政府直接向美國家庭、工人和小企業提供援助的迅速性和規模。《關愛法案》和其他與大流行病有關的立法提供的 2.7 萬億美元的刺激資金約占國內生產總值的 13% 。這是 2009 年美國復蘇和再投資法案 (ARRA) 規模占 GDP 比重的兩倍多。

This direct aid supported Americans’ income through the pandemic. Total personal in-come rose above, and still remains above, pre-pandemic levels. Personal income excluding the government transfers provided for in the CARES Act, however, decreased from pre-pandemic levels (Figure 2). Without this income support, the resurgence in consumer spending would likely not have been as strong. Having added back 11.4 million jobs since April with more than 5 in 10 jobs lost in the pandemic recovered, total wages and salaries increased 5 percent in the third quarter and are now just 1.4 percent below pre-pandemic level.

這項直接援助在流感大流行期間支撐了美國人的收入。個人總收入超過了,並且仍然保持在大流行前的水準。個人收入不包括《關愛法案》規定的政府轉移,但是,從大流行前的水準下降 (圖 2)。如果沒有這種收入支持,消費支出的復蘇可能不會如此強勁。自 4 月以來新增了1140萬個工作崗位,在大流行期間失去的工作崗位中有超過50% 得到恢復,總工資和薪水在第三季度增長了5% ,目前僅比大流行前水準低1.4% 。

The strong foundation of the pre-pandemic economy and the efficacy of the Trump Ad-ministration’s efforts to provide direct economic aid to families and small businesses helped deliver record-setting growth that few predicted would occur earlier this year. Our nation’s economy is poised for continued expansion in the fourth quarter, and the strength of the recovery thus far is a testament to the fortitude and resilience of America’s workers and families.

大流行前經濟的堅實基礎,以及川普政府為家庭和小企業提供直接經濟援助的努力的效力,幫助實現了創紀錄的增長,今年早些時候很少有人預測會出現這種增長。我們國家的經濟已經準備好在第四季度繼續擴張,到目前為止復蘇的力量是對美國工人和家庭的堅韌和韌性的證明。

閱讀白宮英文原文

翻譯:【向日葵(文美)】【一花一世界】【Naomi】編輯:【Isaiah4031】

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“but those who hope in the Lord will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint” 【Isaiah 40:31】 10月 31日