汤姆‧科顿议员报告序言——《战胜中共国:针对性脱钩与经济持久战》

五月花写作组 | 翻译:jiasen | 校对:伞兵 | 编辑 & 发稿:jamie(文胤)

Beat China: Targeted Decoupling and the Economic Long War

战胜中共国:针对性脱钩与经济持久战

The Trump administration’s most consequential policy will prove to be, in my opinion, a tougher stance against the People’s Republic of China. Since the 1980s, presidential candidates of both parties have run as tough on China, only to soften their positions once elected. But President Trump was the exception to this rule, and his administration pursued a campaign to harden our defenses against China’s aggressive behavior, and to sound the diplomatic alarm around the world.

在我看来,历史将证明,川普政府最影响深远的政策是对中共国采取强硬立场。自上世纪80年代以来,两党的总统候选人在竞选时都会对中共国姿态强硬,当选后则会软化立场,但川普总统是个例外。他的政府推行了一场运动,以加强我们对中共国侵略行为的防御,并在全世界敲响外交警钟。

This approach deserves praise, and it ought to form the starting point for a long-term, bipartisan national strategy. The ultimate objective of that strategy should be, to quote the document that launched this country’s ultimately successful strategy against the Soviet Union, the “breakup or the gradual mellowing” of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) power. Our strategy must take seriously the critical military, diplomatic, intelligence, and propaganda challenges posed by Beijing. And it must identify and account for the novel characteristics of strategic competition with an adversary such as the CCP in a nuclear and globalized age—especially the role played by economic policy. As Chairman of the Subcommittee on Economic Policy in the previous Congress, I convened two hearings on these matters in 2020, and directed my staff to conduct further research and outline a strategy for beating China within the economic dimension of our contest. This report is the fruit of that effort.

这种做法值得称赞,而且这应该成为长期的两党国家战略的起点。这个战略的最终目标是对中共权力的 “瓦解或逐渐弱化”——出自启动对苏的成功战略的文件。我们的战略必须严肃对待中共国所构成的至关重要的挑战,在军事、外交、情报和宣传层面。它必须确定并考虑到在核时代和全球化时代,与中共这样的对手进行战略竞争的新特点——特别是经济政策所发挥的作用。作为上届国会经济政策小组委员会主席,我在2020年就这些问题召开了两次听证会,并带领我的工作人员做进一步的研究,勾勒出在我们竞争的经济层面上击败中国的战略。本报告就是这一努力的成果。

 The economy is the primary theater of our conflict with China. We must, of course, maintain an unmatched military capable of defeating the People’s Liberation Army, as well as a diplomatic coalition to counter China. But this report focuses on economic integration between China and the United States and our allies—precisely because the CCP aspires to use this entanglement, which far exceeds trade flows between the free world and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, to displace us and reorder the globe according to its own ugly ideology without a major war. The CCP’s methods are subtle. The Party exploits the economic freedom of the United States and most of our allies—a freedom that allows countless actors to pursue their interests without consideration of an American “strategy.” No such condition exists in China, and the actions or potential actions of every Chinese firm are ultimately subordinate to the control of the Party.

经济是我们与中共国冲突的主要战场。当然,我们必须保持一支无懈可击,能够打败解放军的军队,以及一个抗衡中共国的外交联盟。但这份报告的重点是中共国与美国和我们的盟友之间的经济融合——正是因为中共渴望利用这种远超冷战时期自由世界与苏联之间的贸易往来的纠葛来取代我们,并在不发生大规模战争的情况下,按照自己丑陋的意识形态重塑全球秩序。中共的手段很微妙。它利用了美国和我们大多数盟友的经济自由——这种自由让无数个体可以在不考虑美国 “战略 “的情况下追求自己的利益。在中共国不存在这样的条件,每一个中共国公司的行动或潜在的行动最终都服从于共产党的控制。

To be sure, the CCP will risk a military conflict to preserve its hold on power at home—for example, to secure control over Taiwan—or if tempted by American irresolution. But the CCP prefers a gradual, if tense, competition in which, decades from now, Americans wake up to discover ourselves poorer, weaker, and disadvantaged by a global order dictated by China. In this future, America’s freedom and prosperity gradually erode in areas where few pay much attention— telecommunications infrastructure, currency, critical manufacturing capabilities, supply chains for strategically significant resources like pharmaceuticals and rare-earth minerals, semiconductor design standards, and many more. By the time Americans realize the extent of our loss, the CCP hopes, it will be too late.

当然,中共会冒着军事冲突的风险来维护其对国内权力的控制——例如,为了确保对台湾的控制——或者当被美国的犹豫所吸引。但是,中共更倾向于一种渐进的甚至高强度的竞争。在这种竞争中,几十年后,美国人一觉醒来,会发现令自己更穷、更弱、更劣势的全球秩序,受中共国支配。在那样未来里,美国的自由和繁荣在很少有人关注的领域逐渐被侵蚀,这些领域包括:电信基础设施、货币、核心制造能力、具有战略意义的资源的供应链(如药品和稀土矿产)、半导体设计标准等等。当美国人意识到我们的损失程度时,将为时已晚,而这正是中共国所希望的。

 Indeed, China’s strategic thinkers have openly discussed this objective for a while now. And China’s quiet maneuvering across many fields of competition confirms that the CCP actively pursues this objective. But General Secretary Xi Jinping’s signal mistake may have been to reveal China’s ambitions too early—to “ask the weight of the emperor’s cauldrons,” to quote an ancient Chinese proverb. This error, combined with the CCP’s brutal misrule and systemic deceit, which unleashed a plague upon the world, has opened eyes internationally to the China threat and created an opportunity for action. This opportunity must be seized.

 事实上,中国的战略家公开讨论这一目标已经有一段时间了。而中国在许多竞争领域的悄悄动作,也证实了中共一直积极追求这个目标。但习近平总书记的标志性错误可能是过早地暴露了中国的野心——用中国的一句古语来说,就是 “问鼎之轻重”。这个错误,再加上中共残暴的错误统治和系统性的欺骗,给世界带来了一场灾难,这让国际社会看到了中国的威胁,并创造了一个行动的机会。我们必须抓住这次机会。

How should America respond? How do we beat China in the economic theater of the conflict? This report proposes a strategy of targeted decoupling from China, matched with policies to mitigate the economic costs of this decoupling. We should, for instance, increase support for basic research and development, expand the American talent pool in advanced scientific and technological fields, deepen economic cooperation with our allies, and rebuild secure, scalable, domestic manufacturing in strategically significant sectors. We also must insist that our allies— whose freedom is also at stake, after all—pursue their own policies of targeted decoupling. Finally, the report calls for re-organizing parts of the federal government with a leading role to play in the economic theater of war.

美国应该如何应对?如何在经济领域的对抗中击败中共国?这份报告提出了有针对性的与中国脱钩的战略,并配以相应的政策来减轻这种脱钩的经济成本。例如,我们应该加大对基础研发的支持力度,扩大美国在先进科技领域的人才储备,深化与盟友的经济合作,并在具有战略意义的部门重建安全、可扩展的国内制造业。我们还必须坚持要求我们的盟友——由于他们的自由也受到威胁——推行自己的针对性脱钩政策。最后,报告呼吁重组部分联邦政府使其在经济战中发挥主导作用。

Our nation has the political will to conceive and execute this strategy on a bipartisan and long-term basis—indeed, the scope of the Chinese threat likely will have a unifying effect on our politics. But any such strategy will have its critics. Some objections are trivial and incoherent, such as those from critics who believe America is too morally compromised to lead or even to defend itself. Such “woke” critics should realize that a racist, imperialist power does, in fact, exist—but in the form of the Han-supremacist CCP, which interns ethnic minorities in concentration camps, despoils the environment, and ruthlessly seizes territory to improve its military position and hoard access to resources.

我国有政治意愿在跨党派长期的基础上构思和执行这一战略——事实上,中共威胁的范围很可能会对我们的政治产生一致的影响。但任何这样的战略都会有批评者。有些反对意见是微不足道和语无伦次的,比如那些认为美国在道德上过于退化,无法领导甚至自卫的批评者。这些 “清醒 “的批评者应该认识到,一个种族主义的帝国主义势力真实存在——但其形式是汉族至上主义的中共,它把少数民族关进集中营,破坏环境,如狼似虎侵占领土以提高其军事地位并囤积资源。

 More significant are critics who mistakenly deprioritize the real, concrete, present-day threat of China in favor of abstract “transnational” challenges. China’s leaders eagerly propose to cooperate on, say, climate change because they believe naïve, credulous American policymakers will offer concrete concessions for distant promises. Borrowing from J. Wellington Wimpy, they will gladly promise to reduce carbon emissions in 2060 if the United States would merely give them Taiwan today.

 更重要的是那些批评者错误地弱化中共国的威胁——真实,确凿,此时此刻——而偏重于抽象的 “跨国 “挑战。中共国领导人急切地提出在气候变化等问题上与美国进行合作,因为他们相信天真、可信的美国政策制定者会以具体的让步来换取遥远的承诺。借用大力水手的话说,如果美国今天仅仅给他们台湾,他们会欣然承诺在2060年减少碳排放。

Finally, the most significant domestic resistance will come from the China Lobby: American and Western companies profiting off economic integration with China. The lure of China’s subsidized production capabilities and large and increasingly prosperous market has created a powerful coalition with great political influence. The China Lobby recoils at any claim that America’s prosperity and security—indeed, our very survival as a free nation—takes precedence over its bottom line.

最后,最重要的国内阻力将来自中共国的游说:美国和西方公司从与中国的经济融合中获利。中国的补贴生产能力和庞大且日益繁荣的市场的诱惑,造就了一个强大的联盟,具有巨大的政治影响力。美国的繁荣和安全是我们作为自由国家的生存条件,优先于中共国说客团的底线,任何基于此的诉求都会让其不寒而栗。

Sadly, the China Lobby, its influence, and the strategic advantage it provides Beijing, are no happy accidents for the Chinese Communist Party. As in so many other cases, the CCP has patiently cultivated its de facto allies in American business. During tense moments in trade negotiations with the Trump administration, China’s leaders explicitly asked American CEOs to lobby the administration and Congress on its behalf. They do the same through governors and mayors, university presidents, and influential cultural and media figures. The time has come, though, to call the China Lobby what it is, and ask if they really want to sell the proverbial rope that the communists in Beijing will use to hang us all.

可悲的是,中共游说团的影响力以及它为中共国提供的战略优势都不是什么幸福的意外。与其他许多情况一样,中共耐心地培养了它在美国商界的事实上的盟友。在与川普政府进行贸易谈判的紧张时刻,中共领导人明确要求美国CEO代表中共国游说政府和国会。他们也通过州长和市长、大学校长以及有影响力的文化和媒体人士来做同样的事情。不过,现在是时候跟中共国游说团挑明了,问问他们是否真的想卖给中共用来绞死我们的绞索。

The challenges of Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, and the Soviet Union all ended with total American victory; the Cold War was even won without direct military conflict. Once again, America confronts a powerful totalitarian adversary that seeks to dominate Eurasia and remake the world order, albeit with its own unique and subtle approach. China started its struggle for mastery against the United States decades ago, but only recently has America awoken to the challenge. Judging from history, a slow start is perhaps the American way of strategy. But so is victory.

来自纳粹德国、日本帝国和苏联的挑战,都以美国完胜而告终;美国更是在没有直接军事冲突的情况下取得了冷战的胜利。美国再一次面对一个强大的极权主义对手,它试图主导欧亚大陆,重塑世界秩序,尽管它有自己独特而狡诈的方法。中共国早在几十年前就发起了对美国的挑战,但直到最近美国才醒悟过来,接受挑战。从历史来看,缓慢起步或许是美国的战略之道,但胜利也是如此。

Senator Tom‧Cotton

参议员 汤姆‧科顿

February 2021

2021年2月

原文链接:

Beat China: Targeted Decoupling and the Economic Long War


更多文章欢迎浏览波士顿五月花GNEWS官方号

更多直播欢迎关注GTV官方号五月花之声五月花讲堂

欢迎加入波士顿五月花农场,订阅我们的官方推特账号官方油管账号

+5
1 评论
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
2020HXY
2 月 之前

推动的力量!

0