美国2020年第三季度GDP增长率为33.1%,创历史记录!

新闻简述:2020年10月29日消息,2020 年第三季度国内生产总值(GDP)的年增长率为 33.1%,超出了预期,并创下了历史新高。GDP的增长几乎是70年前创纪录的两倍。

The Great American Recovery: Third Quarter GDP Blows Past Expectations

美国伟大的复苏:第三季度国内生产总值超过了过去的期望

Economy & Jobs

经济与就业

October 29, 2020

2020年10月29日 

After releasing his plan to reopen America safely in April, President Trump remarked that prior to the Coronavirus pandemic, the United States had “built the greatest economy anywhere in the world . . .  and we’re going to build it again.”

今年四月,川普总统宣布了安全重新开放美国的计划,之后他表示,在冠状病毒大流行之前,美国已经“建立了世界上最伟大的经济体… … 我们将重建它。”

At that time, the consensus among economic forecasters was that pandemic-induced lockdowns would result in a sharp economic contraction in the second quarter, and that the economy would experience tepid growth in the third quarter as it slowly clawed back pandemic losses. But because of the President’s pro-growth policies that set a strong pre-pandemic foundation—and the extraordinary speed and scale of the Administra-tion’s support for America’s families and businesses—our nation’s recovery continues to exceed expectations.

当时,经济预测人士的共识是,大流行病引发的封锁将导致第二季度经济急剧收缩,第三季度经济增长将不愠不火,因为它将缓慢地收复大流行病造成的损失。但是,由于总统支持增长的政策奠定了强大的疫情爆发前基础,以及政府对美国家庭和企业的支持速度和规模异乎寻常,我们国家的复苏继续超出预期。

This morning’s release of U.S. GDP for the third quarter of 2020 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) affirms President Trump’s statement that “we’re coming back, and we’re coming back strong.”

美国经济分析局 (BEA) 今天上午发布的 2020 年第三季度美国国内生产总值 (GDP) ,证实了川普总统的声明,即 “我们正在回归,我们正在强劲回归。”

The BEA estimates that real GDP grew 7.4 percent (33.1 percent at an annual rate) in the third quarter, the largest single quarter of economic growth on record and roughly twice the prior record of 3.9 percent (16.7 percent at an annual rate) set in the first quarter of 1950. This growth follows the most severe pandemic-induced contraction on record in the second quarter of 2020, which occurred as the government mandatorily shut down all but nonessential services, and Americans made sacrifices to slow the pandemic.

经济分析局估计,第三季度的实际国内生产总值增长了 7.4% (按年率计算为 33.1%) ,这是有记录以来最大的单季度经济增长,大约是 1950 年第一季度创下的3.9% (按年率计算为 16.7%) 的两倍。此前,2020 年第二季度出现了有记录以来最严重的流感大流行引发的收缩,当时政府强制关闭了除非必要服务以外的所有服务,美国人也为减缓流感大流行做出了牺牲。

With the historic third-quarter growth, the United States in a single quarter has now re-covered two-thirds of the economic output lost due to the pandemic during the first half of the year (Figure 1). In the recovery from the 2008-09 recession, it took 4 times as long to regain the same share of lost economic output.

随着历史性的第三季度增长,美国在一个季度内已经恢复了今年上半年因大流行病而损失的经济产出的三分之二 (图 1)。在从 2008 年至 2009 年的衰退中复苏的过程中,经济产出损失所占的比例恢复到原来的 4 倍。

After data confirmed the recovery was well underway beginning in May, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in July projected a second quarter contraction roughly in line with the actual decline that occurred, though the CBO projected a third quarter growth rate of just 4.0 percent (17.0 percent at an annual rate). The strong footing of the United States economy prior to the pandemic contributed to the stronger-than-expected recovery our country is currently experiencing.

在数据确认经济复苏从 5 月份开始就已经进行良好之后,无党派的国会预算办公室 (CBO) 在 7 月份预测,第二季度的经济萎缩与实际下降大致相符,尽管 CBO 预测第三季度的经济增长率仅为 4.0% (按年率计算为 17.0%)。在大流行病爆发之前,美国经济的坚实基础促进了我国目前正在经历的比预期更强劲的复苏。

The United States had the highest GDP growth rate among the G7 countries from 2017 to 2019, with growth more than double the G7 average. While the pandemic hit every major economy around the world, the United States experienced the least severe economic contraction of any major Western economy in the first half of 2020, with the Euro Area economy’s contraction being 1.5 times as severe as the contraction of the U.S. economy.

从 2017 年到 2019 年,美国的 GDP 增长率在七国集团中名列前茅,是七国集团平均增长率的两倍以上。2020 年上半年,全球各主要经济体都受到了大流行病的冲击,而美国经济的萎缩程度是西方主要经济体中最轻的,欧元区经济的萎缩程度是美国经济萎缩程度的 1.5 倍。

A resurgence in consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of GDP, supported the historic third quarter GDP growth and reflects both the reopening of America’s busi-nesses and the confidence of consumers to spend on goods and services once more. Consumer spending in the services sector alone accounted for nearly half of GDP growth in the third quarter. Greater third quarter spending on recreation, food, and accommodation services—sectors acutely impacted by lockdowns—alone accounted for one-fifth of total GDP growth in the third quarter.

占国内生产总值 (GDP) 三分之二的消费者支出的复苏,支撑了历史性的第三季度 GDP 增长,反映了美国企业的重新开张,以及消费者对商品和服务支出的信心。仅服务部门的消费支出就占到了第三季度 GDP 增长的近一半。第三季度,娱乐、食品和住宿服务行业的支出增加,仅此一项就占到了第三季度国内生产总值 (GDP) 总增长的五分之一。

The growth in the third quarter, and the particular strength of American consumers, also reflects the swiftness and magnitude of the aid the Administration provided directly to America’s families, workers, and small businesses. The $2.7 trillion in stimulus that the CARES Act and other pandemic-related legislation supplied is roughly 13 percent as a share of GDP. That is more than twice the size of the 2009 American Recovery and Rein-vestment Act (ARRA) as a share of GDP.

第三季度的经济增长,以及美国消费者的特殊力量,也反映了政府直接向美国家庭、工人和小企业提供援助的迅速性和规模。《关爱法案》和其他与大流行病有关的立法提供的 2.7 万亿美元的刺激资金约占国内生产总值的 13% 。这是 2009 年美国复苏和再投资法案 (ARRA) 规模占 GDP 比重的两倍多。

This direct aid supported Americans’ income through the pandemic. Total personal in-come rose above, and still remains above, pre-pandemic levels. Personal income exclud-ing the government transfers provided for in the CARES Act, however, decreased from pre-pandemic levels (Figure 2). Without this income support, the resurgence in consumer spending would likely not have been as strong. Having added back 11.4 million jobs since April with more than 5 in 10 jobs lost in the pandemic recovered, total wages and salaries increased 5 percent in the third quarter and are now just 1.4 percent below pre-pandemic level.

这项直接援助在流感大流行期间支撑了美国人的收入。个人总收入超过了,并且仍然保持在大流行前的水平。个人收入不包括《关爱法案》规定的政府转移,但是,从大流行前的水平下降 (图 2)。如果没有这种收入支持,消费支出的复苏可能不会如此强劲。自 4 月以来新增了 1140 万个工作岗位,在大流行期间失去的工作岗位中有超过 50% 得到恢复,总工资和薪水在第三季度增长了 5% ,目前仅比大流行前水平低 1.4% 。

The strong foundation of the pre-pandemic economy and the efficacy of the Trump Ad-ministration’s efforts to provide direct economic aid to families and small businesses helped deliver record-setting growth that few predicted would occur earlier this year. Our nation’s economy is poised for continued expansion in the fourth quarter, and the strength of the recovery thus far is a testament to the fortitude and resilience of Ameri-ca’s workers and families.

大流行前经济的坚实基础,以及川普政府为家庭和小企业提供直接经济援助的努力的效力,帮助实现了创纪录的增长,今年早些时候很少有人预测会出现这种增长。我们国家的经济已经准备好在第四季度继续扩张,到目前为止复苏的力量是对美国工人和家庭的坚韧和韧性的证明。

阅读白宫英文原文

翻译:【向日葵(文美)】【一花一世界】【Naomi】编辑:【Isaiah4031】

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“but those who hope in the Lord will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint” 【Isaiah 40:31】 10月 31日