Nick Timiraos (the chief economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal)
尼克·蒂米羅斯(《華爾街日報》首席經濟記者)

Well, you certainly see it in the housing market, right?
嗯,你肯定也在房地產市場上看到了,對吧?

And so people who were looking to buy a home six months ago when mortgage rates were at 3%
六個月前,當抵押貸款利率爲 3% 時,那些想買房的人

Now mortgage rates are five and a quarter, five and a half
而現在貸款利率是5.25%,5.5%

That changes the monthly payment, that changes what you’re able to afford
這改變了你每月的付款和你能負擔得起的東西

So we won’t see that in the data for home sales right away
之所以我們不會立即在房屋銷售數據中看到這一點

and it’ll lag even longer in prices
而且價格會滯後更長時間

It’ll take a year for that to work through the system
這需要一年的時間才能通過系統

but you could see it eventually
但你最終會看到它

Maria Bartiromo (Fox Business Network host)
瑪麗亞·巴蒂羅莫(福克斯商業網絡主持人)

What do you think?
你怎麼看?

John Lonski (Thru The Cycle President)
約翰·隆斯基 (Thru The Cycle 總裁)

Yeah, we’re gonna see I think later this morning
是的,我們會看到我想今天早上晚一點的時候

more evidence of a decline in housing activity
更多證據表明房屋銷售活動減少

mortgage applications from potential homebuyers will be down year over year
潛在購房者的貸款申請將逐年下降

we’re gonna we’re looking at deep year-over-year plunges by mortgage applications for refinancing
我們將看到再融資貸款申請的同比大幅下降

that’s telling me that we’re going to get you know
這告訴我, 我們會讓你知道

less support from lower what what had been lower interest rates for consumer spending
較低的消費支出利率帶來的支持減少

and you’re very correct that by noting that this is a lagged effect
而注意到這是一個滯後效應你是非常正確的

we’re not going to feel the full impact of higher mortgage yields of higher interest rates
我們不會感受到更高利率的更高貸款收益率的全部影響

until perhaps six to 12 months from now
直到從現在開始的 6 到 12 個月

And that’s the problem
這就是問題所在

The Fed doesn’t know how much economic activity
美聯儲不知道有多少經濟活動

how much spending is going to be lost to higher interest rates
會因高利率而損失多少支出

And that is why there’s a very good chance
這就是爲什麼我們很有可能

that we have a recession within the next 12 to 18 months
在未來12 到 18 個月內陷入衰退

but then Powell warned us, no pain, no gain
但隨後鮑威爾警告我們,沒有痛苦,就沒有收穫

原視頻鏈接: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVSbxJBDB5Y

Date:05/18/2022
原視頻標題: Fed’s rate hikes moved the needle on inflation in housing market: WSJ reporter
華爾街日報記者: 美聯儲加息推動了房地產市場的通脹
原視頻日期:2022/05/18
原視頻鏈接: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVSbxJBDB5Y
任務編號:KE512(4504)
視頻時間段 : 2:11-3:30

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