Professor Kenneth Rogoff (Harvard University economics)
肯尼斯·羅戈夫教授(哈佛大學經濟學)

They have to raise interest rates that much and will cause a recession, no doubt
他們(美聯儲)必須提高利率,毫無疑問這將導致經濟衰退

I don’t think they’ll go that far
我認爲他們不會提高那麼多

My best guess is they fall short
我最好的猜測是他們會達不到預期

They raise interest rates to three, three and a half
他們提高利率到3,3.5%

And we’re left with a very soft economy
我們的經濟非常的疲軟

and still inflation two years from now for the end of 2023
從現在的兩年後到2023年底仍是在通貨膨脹

And, you know, three and a half four range
而且,你知道,3.5到4%的範圍

I am not sure. I’m not saying they should do more
我不確定,我不是說他們應該做更多

because you care about the economy too
因爲美聯儲也關心經濟

But you know, once things have gotten out of hand
但你知道,一旦事情失控

it’s not that easy to bring it back under control
把它重新控制住並不容易

Neil Cavuto (Fox News anchor)
尼爾·卡武託(福克斯新聞主播)

Now, I think what they’re saying is that you don’t have to go that high
現在,我想他們說的是你不必做的那麼高

and it course raising interest rates
它當然會提高利率

its start reversing the inflationary trend
它開始扭轉通脹趨勢

We might already be seeing it in disparate
我們可能已經在不同的地方看到這種趨勢

you know, numbers we’re getting that are not accelerating as much as they were
你知道,我們得到的通脹增長數字並沒有像以前那麼快

you put any stock in that?
你會投資任何股票嗎?

Professor Kenneth Rogoff
肯尼斯·羅戈夫教授

If these are you know, a little bit of mild good news
如果這些是通脹溫和的好消息

but if you look at the broader picture
但如果你看更廣闊的圖景

it’s really hard to see how you’re gonna get the inflation rates down too
真的很難看出你將如何降低通貨膨脹率降到2.5%

say two and a half percent without having a recession anytime soon
而又不會很快出現衰退

Yeah, I mean, inflation is coming down
是的,我的意思是,通貨膨脹正在下降

but it was it was 8.6%
但它是8.6%

Neil Cavuto
尼爾·卡武託

You’re right
你是對的

Professor Kenneth Rogoff
肯尼斯·羅戈夫教授

So bringing it down
所以要降低它

we’re talking about it coming down
我們正在談論它正在下降

but there’s nowhere near where they would like to have it
但離他們想要到的地方還很遠

Neil Cavuto
尼爾·卡武託

You know, Professor, where do you factor in?
你知道,教授,你考慮的因素在哪裏?

How what it means for the stock market because the higher rates go
由於更高的利率,這對股市意味着什麼

and have some banks that are counting already 4% CD rates and like
並且有一些銀行已經在計算4%的定期利率等

so we’re seeing a little activity
所以我們幾乎看不到那裏的一些活動

hardly norm I stressed but for investors that’s not an awful return
很難正常,但對於投資者來說,這是一個不錯的回報

It’s a way to find an alternative the craziness of the markets
這是一種尋找替代市場瘋狂的方法

In other words, could it feed on a market sell off?
換句話說,它能否以市場拋售爲生?

Professor Kenneth Rogoff
肯尼斯·羅戈夫教授

Yeah, I mean, there’s a lot of things going on
是的,我的意思是,發生了很多事情

There’s not just what the Fed is doing
不僅僅是美聯儲在加息、收緊

The shutdowns in China
還有中國的封鎖

Their COVID policy which is a political problem
他們的COVID政策,這是一個政治問題

It’s hard to overstate how bad that is
很難誇大這有多糟糕

They slow growth
他們減緩增長

That’s a supply shock that keeps coming that raises prices, lowers productivity
這是一種不斷出現的供應衝擊,會提高價格,降低生產力

the war in Ukraine’s, part of pushing up gas prices
在烏克蘭的戰爭,是推高天然氣價格的一部分

pushing up food prices, so there’s a lot of things going on
推高了食品價格,所以除了我們讓通貨膨脹失控之外

in addition to the fact that we let inflation get out of hand
發生了很多事情

So I’m not sure that there’s sort of like a lot of good news
所以我不確定是否有很多好消息

bringing things back in line, the stock market sort of absorbing all of it
讓事情恢復正常,股票市場吸收了所有這些

Certain things like tech stocks are particularly sensitive to the interest rate
科技股等某些東西對利率特別敏感

because they get their looking to have big profits a long time in the future
因爲他們希望在未來很長一段時間內獲得鉅額利潤

And they’ve been coming down harder
他們受影響的更厲害


Date:05/14/2022
原視頻標題: Inflation will be hard to control if it gets ‘out of hand’: Harvard economist
哈佛經濟學家:如果“失控”,通脹將難以控制
原視頻日期:2022/05/14
原視頻鏈接: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZERH6xHfbyE
任務編號:KE509(4479)
視頻時間段 : 0:44-3:32
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