Professor Kenneth Rogoff (Harvard University economics)
肯尼斯·罗戈夫教授(哈佛大学经济学)

They have to raise interest rates that much and will cause a recession, no doubt
他们(美联储)必须提高利率,毫无疑问这将导致经济衰退

I don’t think they’ll go that far
我认为他们不会提高那么多

My best guess is they fall short
我最好的猜测是他们会达不到预期

They raise interest rates to three, three and a half
他们提高利率到3,3.5%

And we’re left with a very soft economy
我们的经济非常的疲软

and still inflation two years from now for the end of 2023
从现在的两年后到2023年底仍是在通货膨胀

And, you know, three and a half four range
而且,你知道,3.5到4%的范围

I am not sure. I’m not saying they should do more
我不确定,我不是说他们应该做更多

because you care about the economy too
因为美联储也关心经济

But you know, once things have gotten out of hand
但你知道,一旦事情失控

it’s not that easy to bring it back under control
把它重新控制住并不容易

Neil Cavuto (Fox News anchor)
尼尔·卡武托(福克斯新闻主播)

Now, I think what they’re saying is that you don’t have to go that high
现在,我想他们说的是你不必做的那么高

and it course raising interest rates
它当然会提高利率

its start reversing the inflationary trend
它开始扭转通胀趋势

We might already be seeing it in disparate
我们可能已经在不同的地方看到这种趋势

you know, numbers we’re getting that are not accelerating as much as they were
你知道,我们得到的通胀增长数字并没有像以前那么快

you put any stock in that?
你会投资任何股票吗?

Professor Kenneth Rogoff
肯尼斯·罗戈夫教授

If these are you know, a little bit of mild good news
如果这些是通胀温和的好消息

but if you look at the broader picture
但如果你看更广阔的图景

it’s really hard to see how you’re gonna get the inflation rates down too
真的很难看出你将如何降低通货膨胀率降到2.5%

say two and a half percent without having a recession anytime soon
而又不会很快出现衰退

Yeah, I mean, inflation is coming down
是的,我的意思是,通货膨胀正在下降

but it was it was 8.6%
但它是8.6%

Neil Cavuto
尼尔·卡武托

You’re right
你是对的

Professor Kenneth Rogoff
肯尼斯·罗戈夫教授

So bringing it down
所以要降低它

we’re talking about it coming down
我们正在谈论它正在下降

but there’s nowhere near where they would like to have it
但离他们想要到的地方还很远

Neil Cavuto
尼尔·卡武托

You know, Professor, where do you factor in?
你知道,教授,你考虑的因素在哪里?

How what it means for the stock market because the higher rates go
由于更高的利率,这对股市意味着什么

and have some banks that are counting already 4% CD rates and like
并且有一些银行已经在计算4%的定期利率等

so we’re seeing a little activity
所以我们几乎看不到那里的一些活动

hardly norm I stressed but for investors that’s not an awful return
很难正常,但对于投资者来说,这是一个不错的回报

It’s a way to find an alternative the craziness of the markets
这是一种寻找替代市场疯狂的方法

In other words, could it feed on a market sell off?
换句话说,它能否以市场抛售为生?

Professor Kenneth Rogoff
肯尼斯·罗戈夫教授

Yeah, I mean, there’s a lot of things going on
是的,我的意思是,发生了很多事情

There’s not just what the Fed is doing
不仅仅是美联储在加息、收紧

The shutdowns in China
还有中国的封锁

Their COVID policy which is a political problem
他们的COVID政策,这是一个政治问题

It’s hard to overstate how bad that is
很难夸大这有多糟糕

They slow growth
他们减缓增长

That’s a supply shock that keeps coming that raises prices, lowers productivity
这是一种不断出现的供应冲击,会提高价格,降低生产力

the war in Ukraine’s, part of pushing up gas prices
在乌克兰的战争,是推高天然气价格的一部分

pushing up food prices, so there’s a lot of things going on
推高了食品价格,所以除了我们让通货膨胀失控之外

in addition to the fact that we let inflation get out of hand
发生了很多事情

So I’m not sure that there’s sort of like a lot of good news
所以我不确定是否有很多好消息

bringing things back in line, the stock market sort of absorbing all of it
让事情恢复正常,股票市场吸收了所有这些

Certain things like tech stocks are particularly sensitive to the interest rate
科技股等某些东西对利率特别敏感

because they get their looking to have big profits a long time in the future
因为他们希望在未来很长一段时间内获得巨额利润

And they’ve been coming down harder
他们受影响的更厉害


Date:05/14/2022
原视频标题: Inflation will be hard to control if it gets ‘out of hand’: Harvard economist
哈佛经济学家:如果“失控”,通胀将难以控制
原视频日期:2022/05/14
原视频链接: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZERH6xHfbyE
任务编号:KE509(4479)
视频时间段 : 0:44-3:32
英听校:洛杉矶盘古农场 – Layka
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