作者:加拿大溫哥華揚帆農場 – 視頻組

焦點節目-Stephanie Hamill 與 Gordan Chang

0:08
The reduction of CO2 emissions is an important policy. So is national security. And what Russia and China have done here, they have taken advantage of the effort to reduce CO2 emissions, which to the Biden administration means a frontal assault on oil and gas. It』s so clear what』s happening.

減少二氧化碳排放是一項重要政策。也是關系到國家安全。俄羅斯和中國現在的所作所為是,他們利用了減少二氧化碳排放的努力,這對拜登政府來說意味著對石油和天然氣的正面攻擊。正在發生的事情已經很清楚了。

0:42
That was Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana highlighting how our dependence and Europe』s dependence on Russian oil is national security suicide. And it is, as Russia continues its attacks on Ukraine, the US and allies are funding the war machine by continuing business with Russia. It defies logic. Now, there are other things to consider in regards to national security, like how the invasion of Ukraine will impact Russia』s relationship with China. Historically speaking, Russia』s 2014 annexation of Crimea brought the two closer together. So now some are wondering if this invasion could do the same. Joining me now to weigh in, columnist and author of the books 「The Coming Collapse of China」, and 「The Great US-China Tech War」, Gordon Chang. Gordon, thank you so much for joining me. So, Gordon, do you share these concerns about what』s going on and the possibility of this invasion pushing China and Russia together?

路易斯安那州參議員約翰-肯尼迪所強調:我們對俄羅斯石油的依賴和歐洲對俄羅斯石油的依賴對國家安全來說是自殺。而事實也是如此,因為在俄羅斯繼續攻擊烏克蘭的時候,美國和其盟國還在通過繼續與俄羅斯做生意來資助這個戰爭機器。這違背邏輯。現在,在國家安全方面還有其他事情要考慮,比如入侵烏克蘭將如何影響俄羅斯與中國的關系。從歷史上看,俄羅斯2014年對克裏米亞的吞並使中俄兩國關系更加緊密。因此,現在有些人在想,這次入侵(烏克蘭)是否能起到同樣的作用。現在有請專欄作家、《中國即將崩潰》和《中美科技大戰》一書的作者,章家敦。家敦,非常感謝您來到這個節目。那麽,家敦,您是否也對正在發生的這些事情感到擔憂,是否擔憂這種入侵可能將中(共)國和俄羅斯推到一起?

1:35
Oh, China and Russia are very close right now. And of course, our sanctions, especially freezing dollar accounts, kicking Russian institutions off the SWIFT, is going to push Russia into China』s economic orbit and into its financial orbit. So out of SWIFT, it then goes into CIPS, which is a cross border interbank payment system, which is China』s version of SWIFT. But you know, Stephanie, these two countries were very close together, even before the sanctions. They』ve been coordinating their foreign policies, they』re coordinating their militaries, they』re trying to make them inter-operable. So, this is going to be basically Russia and China forming an axis. And in some sense, you know, Russia, the weak state could actually drag down China. So this might not be a bad thing for us.

中國和俄羅斯現在走得非常近。當然,我們的製裁,特別是凍結美元賬戶,將俄羅斯機構踢出SWIFT,將把俄羅斯推向中國的經濟軌道和金融軌道。所以離開SWIFT,俄羅斯進入CIPS,這是一個跨境銀行間支付系統,這是中國的SWIFT版本。但是你知道,斯蒂芬妮,這兩個國家甚至是在製裁之前就走得非常近。他們一直在協調他們的外交政策,他們正在協調他們的軍隊,他們正試圖使它們互相配合。所以,基本上俄羅斯和中國形成了一個軸心。在某種意義上,你知道,俄羅斯這個弱國實際上可以拖垮中國。所以 這對我們來說可能不是一件壞事。

2:23
Yeah, that』s a good point. Now, some are definitely concerned about how the Russian sanctions will impact our global financial system. And you kind of touched on that a bit. And what and also too, if you could further explain what that would even mean for the American dollar.

是的,這是個很好的觀點。現在,一些人肯定擔心對俄羅斯的製裁將如何影響我們的全球金融體系。您也提到了這一點。您是否能進一步解釋一下這對美元意味著什麽?

2:37
US dollar is the world』s reserve currency. It is, you know, the Euro is, of course, important, Sterling is important, yen. But by far the dollar underpins the global financial system. And China has for decades tried to dethrone the dollar. Now, they really can』t do it because their currency is not convertible on a capital account. Nobody trusts Beijing to manage their currency fairly. And as well, you can』t have a global reserve currency if you don』t run persistent current account deficits. And China runs persistent surpluses. So there』s not enough renminbi in the world. So there are a lot of reasons. Nevertheless, we should not take this for granted. Because China every day in every way tries to attack our dollar. And they』re doing it now, during the Ukraine war.

美元是世界上的儲備貨幣。你知道,歐元,當然,重要,英鎊也很重要,日元也很重要。但到目前為止,美元還是全球金融體系的基礎。幾十年來,中國一直試圖削弱美元的地位。現在,他們真的做不到,因為他們的貨幣不能在資本賬戶上兌換。沒有人相信北京能公平地管理他們的貨幣。而且,你不可能擁有一個全球儲備貨幣,如果你沒有持續的活期賬戶赤字。中國有持續的盈余。所以世界上沒有足夠的人民幣。所以有很多原因。但盡管如此,我們不應該認為這是理所當然的。因為中國每天以各種方式試圖攻擊我們的美元。他們現在在烏克蘭戰爭期間就在這樣做。

3:25
As you pointed out, there was already an existing cozy relationship between Russia and China. And I guess my question was, you know, how much more would that become after this invasion, as Russia becomes more isolated? That being said, there were reports out there that China actually asked Russia to wait until after the Olympics to invade Ukraine? Number one, do you believe these reports? And number two, what does that say about our relationship with China?

正如您所指出的,俄羅斯和中國之間已經存在著親密的關系。我想我的問題是,在這次入侵之後,隨著俄羅斯變得更加孤立,他們的關系會變得更加親蜜嗎?有報道說,中國實際上要求俄羅斯等到冬奧會之後再入侵烏克蘭?第一,你相信這些報道嗎?第二,對於我們與中國的關系,這說明了什麽?

3:52
Those reports, indeed, are credible. You know, we』ve also seen other things that back that up. So for instance, the New York Times reported that Biden officials talked to China to try to get the Chinese to constrain Russia, we shared intelligence with them. And the Chinese then did two things, Stephanie. They rebuffed us, and then they took our intelligence and they gave it to the Russians. So this is really a clear sign of partnership between China and Russia. And we can expect these two states and their proxies to continue to attack the international system, and more particularly, attack us. And we have to understand the Chinese mentality right now. There are a lot of people in the Biden administration who want to have a good relationship with Beijing, but you can』t do it as long as the communist party is in power.

這些報告,確實是可信的。你知道,我們也看到了其他的東西,證實了這一點。例如《紐約時報》報道說,拜登的官員與中國交談,試圖讓中國人限製俄羅斯。我們與他們分享情報。然後,中國人做了兩件事,斯蒂芬妮。他們回絕了我們;然後他們把我們的情報給了俄羅斯人。因此,這是中國和俄羅斯之間夥伴關系的一個明顯跡象。我們可以預期這兩個國家和他們的代理人將繼續攻擊國際體系,特別是攻擊我們。我們必須了解中國人現在的心態。在拜登政府中有很多人希望與北京保持良好的關系。但只要共產黨執政,你就不能這樣做。

4:38
And there』s a lot of speculation or questions and attention being brought to the fact that China might be using this invasion as a blueprint in regards to their plans with Taiwan. Do you think that they are watching this closely?

有很多猜測或問題,以及人們都在關註中國可能利用這次入侵作為他們對臺灣計劃的藍圖。您認為他們正在密切關註此事嗎?

4:54
Absolutely. China right now is going through what it calls its two sessions. One of them is the annual meeting of the National People』s Congress. And on Saturday, the central government gave its work report. And in that work report, they were very clear, they said that Taiwan would be a next 「within the new era」. And by that they probably mean within the next decade, Xi Jinping gave some hint in 2019 that this meant at least one generation, or at least while he was in power. So he staked his credibility and his legitimacy on taking over Taiwan. Beijing is working very, very closely, and watching very, very closely what』s going on. And we have to now start deterring China, because we obviously failed to deter Russia, despite our great disparity in power in our favor. This was a failure, one of the greatest failures in American diplomacy, was to watch while this war started.

絕對的。中國現在正在經歷它所謂的兩會。其中之一是全國人民代表大會的年度會議。在星期六,中央政府提交了工作報告。在該工作報告中,他們非常清楚地說,臺灣將成為下一個 「新時代 「的國家。他們所說的可能意味著在未來十年內(收復臺灣),習近平在2019年就給出了一些暗示,這意味著至少有一代人,或者至少在他執政期間(收復臺灣)。所以他把自己的信譽和合法性押在了收復臺灣上。北京正在非常,非常密切地工作,並且非常、非常密切地關註正在發生的事情。我們現在必須開始威懾中國,因為我們顯然未能威懾俄羅斯,盡管在實力上的巨大差距對我們有利。這是一次失敗,是美國外交中最大的失敗之一,就是在這場戰爭開始時袖手旁觀。

5:51
Yeah, it』s what we』ve heard from the Ukrainian president that he』s thankful for all the help, but it』s a little bit late, and that there could have been so much more done before Russia had invaded at this level. Now, we did hear from former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and he was talking about how the US should formally recognize Taiwan as a country. Is that something that you think would be a good idea?

是的,我們從烏克蘭總統那裏聽到的是,他感謝所有的幫助,但這有點晚了,而且在俄羅斯入侵到這種程度之前,本可以做更多的事情。現在,我們確實聽到了前國務卿邁克-蓬佩奧的發言,他談到了美國應該如何正式承認臺灣是一個國家。您認為這是個好主意嗎?

6:14
It』s a great idea. And in addition, we should offer a mutual defense treaty to Taipei if they want it. The problem is Ukraine didn』t have security guarantees. It was not a member of NATO. And although we signed the Budapest Memorandum in December 1994, which was an implicit guarantee, obviously, we did not step in to prevent the Russians from violating their Budapest Memorandum obligations. So we need to have a full relationship with Taiwan. If we do that, China probably is not going to invade because they don』t want to take on the United States. They don』t want the casualties. And there』s a whole bunch of other reasons. So this is a great idea on the part of Secretary Pompeo.

這是個很棒的主意。此外,我們應該向臺北提供一個共同防禦條約,如果他們想要的話。問題是烏克蘭沒有安全保障。它不是北約的成員。盡管我們在1994年12月簽署了《布達佩斯備忘錄》,這是一個隱含的保證。顯然,我們沒有介入,以防止俄羅斯人違反其《布達佩斯備忘錄》的義務。因此,我們需要與臺灣有一個全面的關系。如果我們這樣做,中國可能不會入侵,因為他們不想與美國對抗。他們不希望出現傷亡。而且還有一大堆其他原因。因此,這是美國國務卿蓬佩奧的一個偉大想法。

6:58
On its face, it sounds great, but I』m sure it』s much more complicated than that. Because I don』t think China would sit around and say, 「oh, you know, whatever, that』s fine」. I』m sure there would be some sort of revenge or some sort of implications that would hurt us here as well.

從表面上看,這聽起來很好,但我確信它比這要復雜得多。因為我不認為中國會坐以待斃,說,」哦,你知道,不管怎樣,這很好。」我肯定會有某種報復或某種影響,也會傷害到我們。

7:12
There would be, but you got to remember, Stephanie, that after three decades of misguided China policy, and indeed misguided foreign policy altogether, and that』s all Presidents. By the way, we have no options which are not dangerous. Every option going forward is really grim. And this is our fault because we』ve had presidents who have not defended the United States, and who have not defended the broader international system. And that』s why China and Russia now are moving against their neighbors. And we are at an inflection point where probably the world going forward is not going to be peaceful. This is going to be an entirely new era, as the Chinese say, and it』s not an era that we』re going to like.

會有的,但你要記住,斯蒂芬妮,經過三十年的誤導性中國政策,和誤導性的外交政策,這些都是 總統們幹的。順便說一下,我們沒有不危險的選擇。每一個選擇都是非常嚴峻的。這是我們的錯,因為我們已經有一些總統,他們沒有捍衛美國,也沒有捍衛更廣泛的國際體系。這就是為什麽中國和俄羅斯現在正在對其鄰國采取行動。而我們正處於一個拐點,世界的未來可能不會是和平的。正如中國人所說,這將是一個全新的時代,而這並不是一個我們喜歡的時代。

7:53
Yeah, sounds so disturbing, such a grim picture. Well, Gordon, we』re going to leave it here. We appreciate your insight. Thank you so much.

是的,聽起來很令人不安,這樣一個嚴峻的畫面。好吧,家敦,我們先聊到這裏。我們感謝您的深入見解。非常感謝您。

7:59
Thank you, Stephanie.

謝謝你,斯蒂芬妮。

8:00
Thank you.

謝謝!

素材:文倩

聽寫:藍天靈夢
翻譯:雅典娜2020
校對: abbs
字幕:小白咖啡館
審核:CTQ
發布:雲起時


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