Translated by: Ermat

In this article, we will analyze the power structure of the 20th CPC Congress and the internal strangulation that may be triggered within the CCP.

First, Xi Jinping continues to stay in office as president and continues to firmly grasp the power of the party, government and military. Xi Jinping has been seeking re-election since he took office. From the constitutional amendment to the communiqué of the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee, Xi has been stirring up public opinion within the Party and laying the psychological groundwork.

The outcome of Xi’s re-election is not in doubt. Xi broke with the party’s routine and crowned himself as the top leader for China. Xi knows very well that if he does not stay in power at the 20th National Congress, he will definitely be killed. If Xi continues to be in power at the 20th National Congress, his political rivals Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong’s family will also know very well that Xi will kill them all. So Xi’s re-election is bound to bring about a frenzied struggle within the Communist Party.

Second, Chen Guoduo, who was widely reported and speculated by foreign media, did not “step down” but was promoted. The secretary of the Discipline Inspection Commission is an extremely important position in the CCP, and has the power to make or break decisions within the party. Chen Quanguo is the first senior official to hold the status of party secretary in both Tibet and Xinjiang. Chen Quanguo has harmed many people in Tibet and committed numerous crimes in Xinjiang.

The “War Wolf Force,” which was led by Chen Quanguo and Meng Jianzhu, later raped and killed many people in Xinjiang. During Chen’s tenure, Xinjiang concentration camps were established for genocide and cultural extermination. In 2020, the U.S. sanctioned Chen and four other officials by freezing their assets on the grounds that they were involved in major human rights abuses. Now that Chen Quanguo is secretary of the Discipline Inspection Commission, sending shivers down the spine of the entire party, Chen Quanguo will be a killer in the party’s struggle.

Third, Hu Chunhua has revived the Communist Youth League. Mr. Guo Wengui once said that Hu Jintao was likely to lead China in the transformation of its political system back then. Back then Hu Jintao, as the top party leader of the CCP, made a private deal with Xi Jinping for the sake of his daughter, son and daughter-in-law. He ceded power to Xi Jinping in exchange for his son’s future membership in the Standing Committee.

Back then Hu Jintao sacrificed everything in the Communist Youth League faction for his son and a chance for a possible democratic transformation of China. Mr. Guo Wengui, who has been lurking in the Party for three decades, has been trying to achieve China’s democratic transformation with minimal cost. The outcome of the 18th National Congress that year sent Mr. Guo Wengui to the ice.

In the first five years of Xi Jinping’s rise to power, the Communist Youth League faction was almost extinguished under the careful arrangement of Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong. Li Keqiang has long since become a bare-bones commander. Li Yuanchao, Ling Plan and other big generals of the Communist Youth League faction have lost their power.

The entire Chinese political arena has no hope for the Communist Youth League faction. At the 20th National Congress, with the steep escalation of confrontation between Xi Jinping and Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong, Xi Jinping wants to re-align political forces. This brings back Hu Chunhua in a strong position. Hu Haifeng will also enter the national leadership echelon, which also shows the extreme instability of China’s political scene.

Fourth, there is no Li Zhanshu inside the list. On January 11, 2022, a few days after Mr. Guo Wengui’s announcement, Li Zhanshu, who has been in hiding for two weeks, appeared at the Communist Party’s “Seminar on Studying and Implementing the Spirit of the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee for Leading Cadres at the Provincial and Ministerial Levels,” as if to quell rumors that he was in an unfavorable position. But those who understand the brutality of the CCP’s infighting know that the more Li Zhanshu appears, the more it is clear that he is not safe. Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai both held high-profile press conferences before their arrests, but were soon arrested afterwards.

Fifth, Ding Xuexiang’s power has been reduced. The NPC chairman appears to have a high status, but has no real power within the Chinese Communist Party, which disregards the rule of law. Ding Xuexiang has moved to the periphery from his position as successor to the top leadership. In addition, Xi Jinping’s 65-year-old confidant Li Xi, secretary of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee, became chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. Chen Miner is the first vice premier.