Possible manner of US-China war: the South China Sea

Image from Wall Street Journal

China’s militarization of the South China Sea is a longstanding conflict between the Communist-run country with the rest of world. Given the recent escalation of US-China conflict, it is no longer far fetched to suggest that at some point a war may break out. In fact, the South China Sea is the most likely place where the US’s and China’s military may clash.

How may the US strike?

In the event of a US military strike in the South China Sea, the goal would be to completely blow up the CCP’s artificial islands and reefs. The best method may be to use the B-2 stealth strategic bomber (alternatively by the B-1B supersonic strategic bomber) and the MQ-9 Reaper drone.

In order to avoid the CCP retaliating by bombing US military bases in Japan, the B-2 (or B-1B) can take off from the US. The B-2 has a maximum range of 11,000 kilometers and can be refueled in the air. The MQ-9 can take off from Guam, it has a maximum endurance of 6000 kilometers and is escorted by F22 and F15 fighter jets throughout the journey. Complete the battle formation before reaching the Philippine sea.

After reaching over the Philippine Sea, the US’s military attack satellites, space hypersonic vehicles, or anti-satellite missiles in space will destroy or blind the CCP’s Beidou satellites and other military satellites over the Asia-Pacific region before the B-2 attack. Then the B-2 quickly fires the Tomahawk cruise missile and the Jadam ground penetrating bomb, and knocks out the red flag anti-missile system, all radars and underground arsenals on the artificial islands and reefs of the CCP, before turning back.

Since the anti-stealth radar deployed by the CCP in the South China Sea can only detect the B-2 at a maximum distance of 200 kilometers, even if a quantum radar that can accurately detect stealth fighters is deployed, the current detection range does not exceed 130 kilometers, so B-2 is relatively safe.

After the MQ-9 Reaper UAV finishes launching the missiles from the B-2, it should quickly go forward and enter the South China Sea to make up the knife. Then, air-to-ground Mavericks missiles, lasers or GPS-navigated smart bombs will be used to to blow up the remaining targets.

Although the MQ-9 Reaper UAV has entered the South China Sea, however it is a small target, has some stealth capabilities, and is unmanned, even if it is destroyed, the cost is relatively low.

With this kind of air assault, the CCP’s counterattack effect is very limited.

How may the CCP respond?

After the bombing by the US military is over, the CCP will file a lawsuit against the United Nations International Court of Justice and sue the US for war crimes. Allies of the United States can go to the International Ocean Tribunal to sue the Chinese Communist regime for violating the International Ocean Tribunal’s ruling, undermining the freedom of navigation and violating the territorial waters of other countries. In the end, this will become an endless lawsuit.

This local war in the South China Sea will destroy the CCP’s plan of dominating the international navigation and trade in the South China Sea, and reduce any chance of its further aggression towards neighboring countries. What will likely follow is the heightened dissatisfaction from the highest levels within the CCP, especially those in the military. This will provide impetus to accelerate the CCP’s demise.

Of course, in this local war, relevant US agencies will also guard against the CCP’s actions in the direction of the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. One possible way the CCP could retaliate is to attack Taiwan militarily, to drag the US into further hot war, as the US has pledged to protect Taiwan under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.

Author:雯涵
Editor: XO酱

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of GNEWS.org.

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