Gao Yusheng, former CCP’s ambassador to Ukraine, analyzed the trend of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and its impact on the international order a few days ago, concluding that Russia had already shown signs of defeat. Gao Yusheng’s analysis appeared to be unique in the voice of the CCPs’ official public opinion, which was in favor of Russia. The original article generated considerable repercussions, but disappeared shortly after it was published.
At this internal video seminar on the situation in the Russian-Ukrainian war, Gao Yusheng clearly stated that Russia’s posture in this war is becoming increasingly passive and unfavorable, and it has shown signs of defeat. In his view, the main reasons for Russia’s failure are: first, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia is in the historical process of continuous decline, which is related to Putin’s domestic and foreign policy, and Western sanctions have intensified this process. He believes that “Russia’s decline is reflected in its economic, military, scientific, technological, political, and social fields, which has had a serious negative impact on the Russian army and its combat strength.”
Second, Russia’s failure to make a quick decision indicates that Russia is beginning to fail, its economic and financial strength is no longer able to support a high-tech war that costs hundreds of millions of dollars a day, and every day of delay in the war poses a heavy burden on Russia.
Third, Russia’s military superiority over Ukraine has been offset by the tenacious resistance of the Ukrainian army and the huge and continuous assistance of the West to Ukraine, which also highlights the advantages and disadvantages of Western countries and Russia in armaments, military concepts and operational models.
Fourth, modern warfare is a hybrid war, covering a wide range of fields such as politics, economics, diplomacy, and public opinion, and “Russia is not only passive on the battlefield, but has already lost in other fields.” This determines that it is only a matter of time before Russia is finally defeated.” Therefore, he believes that when and how this war will end is up to Russia, and Russia has lost its strategic leadership and initiative.
Edited by: MikeHua
Posted by: Peter Chen
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