Author: Karamazov 【㊙️翻Gnews原创组】
Delta variant (B.1.617.2) of CCP virus is spreading like wildfire all over the world. Because of the super high infectivity of this variant, a lot of countries has taken full advantage of this “opportunity” to persuade (or scare) people to get vaccinated, claiming that vaccination will offer a significant level of protection. But is that really the case? In this article, we explored the UK data and compared our findings with what’s been reported in UK government website, and our preliminary analysis shows that the analysis conducted by UK government is selective and therefore misleading.
What Has Been Reported on UK.GOV Regarding Vaccination Protection Against Delta Variant
According to UK government website (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant), vaccines are “highly effective against hospitalisation from Delta variant”, and therefore quoted several politicians on persuading people over and over again to get vaccinated. However, apart from mentioning “Further work remains underway to establish the level of protection against mortality from the Delta variant”, it did not elaborate much further on the mortality rate comparison between vaccinated vs unvaccinated people. Did they just accidentally ignore it or do they have something to hide? Curiosity has driven me to dig into the original data that was published by UK government. Simple exploratory statistical analysis shows that the result is troubling.
Brief Summary of Our Preliminary Analysis Based on UK Government & Public Data
Our preliminary statistical analysis shows the following:
- Current infection data shows that it is less likely for the vaccinated people to get infected or hospitalized by delta variant. To put it more accurately, the infection and hospitalization rate calculated from reported data for vaccinated people is indeed less than that for unvaccinated people. This is consistent with what has been reported by UK government.
- However, the most recent data (with data range from Feb 1st, 2020 to Jun 21st, 2021) shows that the absolute mortality rate (here “absolute” means regardless of whether they’ve contracted delta variant or not) due to delta variant is very similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated population.
- Here is most troubling part of the analysis result: if you’ve been infected by delta variant, both the hospitalization rate and mortality rate are much higher among vaccinated people, especially the fully vaccinated people. Latest data shows that among the patients who were infected by delta variant, mortality rate for fully vaccinated people (2 doses of vaccine) is almost 8 times higher than unvaccinated people (0.69% vs 0.08%). I thought this should be significant and a concerning sign, and it’s interesting that UK government did not disclose this part of data.
Appendix: detailed explanation of our preliminary analysis –
Data & Assumptions Used
- UK delta variant infection, hospitalization & death data: these data are extracted from the “Attendance to emergency care and deaths by vaccination status among Delta confirmed cases (sequencing and genotyping) including all confirmed Delta cases in England”table from the latest four “SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England”report. (Technical briefing #14 – #17, source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201). This set of technical briefing summarizes the cumulative (starting on Feb 1st, 2021 till most recent) delta variant data by category every week, for the past 4 weeks.
- UK vaccination rate data: percentage of population who received at least 1 dose of vaccine & percentage of population who have been fully vaccinated (2 doses) used in this analysis is extracted from here: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR. Note that for conservative purpose, the vaccination/full vaccination rate is overestimated and the unvaccinated rate is underestimated. For example, if we would like to calculate the mortality rate among the vaccinated people between Feb 1st, 2021 – June 21st, 2021, the vaccination rate used here is the vaccination rate on June 21st, 2021. However, the actual vaccination rate during this period is bound to be lower than the vaccination rate on the last day (June 21st, 2021). In other words, for conservative purpose, the actual vaccinated population is bound to be lower than what was used in the analysis and the actual absolute mortality rate for vaccinated people should be higher than the estimated value in this analysis. On the other hand, the actual absolute mortality rate for unvaccinated people should be lower than the estimated value, since the actual “unvaccinated rate” is underestimated.
- Other assumption: we assume that the population of UK is 66 million and has been staying constant during the study period (Feb 1st, 2021 – June 21st, 2021).
Absolute Infection Rate by Vaccination Status
The figure below shows the cumulative number of delta variant infection per million people in UK by vaccination status, extracted from the latest 4 technical briefings by UK government:
As can be seen from the figure above, delta variant infection in UK has been growing rapidly among all the vaccination groups in the past 4 weeks. By June 21st, 2021, 2,238 out of 1 million unvaccinated people have been infected by delta variant of CCP virus in UK (blue bar), and only 236 out of 1 million fully vaccinated people have been infected by the same variant (green bar). The delta variant infection rate of people who received at least 1 dose of vaccine is lower than that of fully vaccinated people while higher than that of unvaccinated people (red bar).
Absolute Hospitalization Rate by Vaccination Status
The figure below shows the cumulative number of hospitalization due to delta variant per million people in UK by vaccination status, extracted from the latest 4 technical briefings by UK government:
As can be seen from the figure above, consistent with what has been reported by UK government, fully vaccinated people have the lowest hospitalization rate per million people in UK (green bar), while unvaccinated people have the highest hospitalization rate (blue bar). However, the discrepancy between unvaccinated vs vaccinated hospitalization rate is smaller than the infection rate difference. Take the latest data (Feb 1st, 2021 – June 21st, 2021) as an example: the infection rate of unvaccinated people is 8.5 times higher than that of fully vaccinated people (2,238/million vs 236/million); while the hospitalization rate caused by delta variant infection is only 4.8 times higher for unvaccinated people compared with that for fully vaccinated people (35/million vs 6/million).
Absolute Mortality Rate by Vaccination Status
The figure below shows the cumulative number of deaths due to delta variant per million people in UK by vaccination status, extracted from the latest 4 technical briefings by UK government:
This is the part that is of grave concern. As can be seen from the figure above, according to the latest data (Feb 1st, 2021 – June 21st, 2021), the mortality rates of the three groups (unvaccinated, at least 1 dose vaccinated and fully vaccinated) are very similar: 1.83 person per million, 1.67 person per million and 1.63 person per million respectively. That means even though vaccination can lower your chance of getting infected or hospitalized by delta variant, the chance of death might be almost the same! It makes you wonder why the politicians are still pushing everyone to get vaccinated, considering the chance of death is not too different anyway.
Also, it’s worth mentioning that compared with hospitalization rate and infection rate, mortality rate is considered more accurate because for infection data, a person may choose not to get tested and there might be false positive or false negative for test results. And for hospitalization data, a person may choose not to go to the hospital and just stay at home. However, it is impossible to choose not to die for anybody, that’s why mortality data are usually more accurate.
Plus, the trend of the difference between three vaccination groups are also troubling. In the first time period when delta variant was recorded by UK government (Feb 1st, 2021 – May 31st, 2021), there were 0.4 person per million unvaccinated people in UK dying of delta variant and was 5 time higher than that of fully vaccinated people (0.08 person per million). However, after 4 weeks, the death due to delta variant per million people is almost the same between fully vaccinated and unvaccinated people (1.83 deaths per million vs 1.63 deaths per million). What’s next?
Hospitalization Rate by Vaccination Status, If Infected by Delta Variant Already
This section explores the following question: given that one person is already infected by delta variant of CCP virus, how is the hospitalization rate between different vaccination groups. The preliminary result is very troubling, and is shown in the figure below:
Guess what, the hospitalization rate for unvaccinated group who have been infected by delta variant has been consistently the lowest among all three groups, according to the figure above. And the fully vaccinated group has the highest hospitalization rate, once he or she is infected by delta variant. Most recent data (Feb 1st, 2021 – June 21st, 2021) shows that the hospitalization rate for fully vaccinated people in UK is 2.63% if he or she has contracted delta variant (green bar on the right), while the same rate is only 1.54% for unvaccinated group (blue bar on the very right).
Mortality Rate by Vaccination Status, If Infected by Delta Variant Already
This is the most appalling part of the analysis – the mortality rate by vaccination status if a person has already contracted delta variant CCP virus:
As can be seen from the figure above, if a person has already contracted delta variant CCP virus, the mortality rate for him/her was around 0.64% to 0.75% (four green bars), with the most recent data showing 0.69% (green bar on the right) mortality rate, according to the cumulative datasets in the 4 past technical briefings in UK. However, if a person has contracted delta variant but has not been vaccinated, the mortality rate is only 0.08%, according to the latest data (blue bar on the very right). In other words, data shows that if the person has been infected by delta variant, the mortality rate is almost 8 times higher for fully vaccinated people compared with that for unvaccinated people (0.69% vs 0.08%)! Moreover, as explained above, keep in mind that the mortality rate for vaccinated group might be underestimated while mortality rate for unvaccinated group might be overestimated. Plus, this dataset has not taken the other deaths caused by vaccination into consideration, such as blood clots or heart problems. Yet we are still persuaded every day to take the vaccine, what a ridiculous world.
Conclusion & Notes
Note that this is just a preliminary analysis, and we have not further explored the data by categorizing them into age groups, vaccine brands, occupation, gender, etc. Also, we have not considered other possible confounding factors such as: vaccinated group might be more or less careful in the first place, so they might be less or more likely to get infected regardless of vaccination.
However, this analysis at least suggested that UK government might have cherry-picked the results that fits the “take the vaccine” narrative and chose not to report the whole picture in the article mentioned on their news report (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant). And this analysis also shows that the mortality rate (usually the most accurate metric compared with hospitalization and infection) for vaccinated people who have contracted delta variant CCP virus is very troubling, and might need further related investigation such as potential ADE effect.
We welcome honest dialog and constructive criticism. Let us know if you spot any errors or if any improvements can be made. Thank you!
(The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author’s own)