6/25/2021 Data Analysis Of Food Reserves In Communist China

Since 2020, the Communist China has been hoarding food on a massive scale. According to whistle blower, Miles Guo, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has prepared their strategy deployment covering the sky, underground, and sea levels, along with the hoarding of food, strategic resources, and foreign currencies. Immediately, the author conducted data analysis on food-related information published by the CCP.

First, a quick summary on some background knowledge regarding food.

1.The Definition of Food

In this analysis, the discussion of food will cover wheat, rice, corn, and soybean. The first two are mainly consumed by humans, while the latter two are primarily for animal feeding. The CCP’s definition of food refers to wheat, rice, corn, miscellaneous grains, and other finished grains, which all lean toward the human consumption side.

2.Regarding Agricultural Product Tariff Quota Management

Eight categories of importation good were kept under government control when the CCP first joined the World Trade Organization (WTO), including food, cotton, vegetable oil, sugar, and fertilizer. The Communist China is currently implementing a tariff quota management for agricultural product importation. The quota for importation is based on the WTO’s schedule of concessions, often referred to as “good schedules,” developed when the CCP joined the WTO and made the commitment. The CCP set the total amount of agricultural product that are allowed to enter the Chinese market for the calendar year based on the “good schedules.” According to the food importation allocation table from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of the CCP, the quota of 2021 for each type of agricultural product is listed as below:

Now it is time to return to the main topic.

The following table illustrates the main food importation statistics by the Communist China from 2015 to 2021. Clearly the importation of corn, wheat, barley, and soybean, reached its highest in 2020, while grain and rice peaked in the first five months of 2021. The massive amount of importation in a short period is showing an obvious trend of food hoarding.

Data Source: China Customs

Now, each individual product will be analyzed in detail.

I. Corn

As shown by the chart depicting the historical monthly cumulated importation data of the Communist China from 2015, corn importation surged in 2020 and 2021.

According to the data from the General Administration of Customs Communist China, corn importation reached 3.16 million metric ton (MT) in May 2021, an increase of 395.3% when compared to the same period from the previous year. Similarly, the cumulated importation reached 11.73 million MT in May 2021, a raise of 322.8% when compared to the same period as last year. This amount is far beyond the 7.2 million MT corn quota for the entire year of 2021 set by the NDRC. The CCP started its mass importation of corn from the second half of 2020 in a short time, showing a rapid increase of corn demand.

According to information from chinafeed.org.cn, the Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs (MOA) of the Communist China published its June 2021 demand and supply trend analysis of agricultural products. In that report, it was forecasted that the total annual consumption of corn for 2020/2021 will reach 182 million MT, which is an 8 million MT increase compared to last year. However, it is also a drop of 3 million MT from the forecasted number published last month. This projection is mainly based on the increased importation of corn, barley, sorghum, and distillers dried grains with soluble (DDGS) as a substitution. In the meantime, there is an abundant supply of wheat and rice, leading to a higher consumption level, which, in turn, replaced part of the corn consumption. If the data from the MOA is reliable, then the animal feed consumption is going down, while corn substitutes are going up, meaning that the final corn consumption is showing no increasing trend. However, there is a big leap of corn importation, which shows the demand of reserve hoarding for corn in Communist China.

Additionally, the study of China International Capital Corporation Limited (CICC) is showing the temporary inventory of corn is dropping dramatically during the 2016 to 2020 period, which will probably urge the CCP to increase corn importation and its corn hoarding intention.

Communist China’s food strategy is always based on the security of its basic food, which includes corn, rice, and wheat. They try to guarantee domestic growing of the basic food for self-sufficiency. According to the report of the CICC, corn self-sufficiency ratio maintains at a 98%-99% level, but this drops to 96% in 2020.

Here are the predicted reasons behind the soaring of corn importation:

i. The CCP is faking its published production data results with a misleading high self-sufficiency ratio. Due to the decrease in agricultural land and a lack of willingness to work from farmers, they have to import large amounts of corn to bridge the gap of food shortage to stabilize the market supply and price. This explanation reflects the CCP’s lie about its good harvests every year and its claim of food self-sufficiency.

ii. As an important strategic resource, the reserve level of corn was increased to prepare for natural disasters or other emergencies. So far, there is no evidence of natural hazards for the term 2020-2021, and the importation only accounts for a small portion of the total corn production. Further importation seems unnecessary considering the down trending of corn consumption, so it is likely that its only purpose is for preparing for future uncertainties as an emergency reserve backup. Dose this coincide with the persisting concern of the Unification of Taiwan from Miles Guo?

II. Wheat

The surges of wheat importation from the second half of 2020 is in line with the trend of corn importation, according to the monthly cumulated data from 2015.

As seen in the chart below, the importation for the month of May in 2021 is 790 thousand MT, while the cumulated amount from January to May in 2021 is 4.61 million MT, which is an increase of 88.9% when compared to the same period last year. Furthermore, the importation of wheat is increasing at a constant rate.

The information published by the National Grain and Oil Information Center forecasted 123.5 million MT as the total wheat consumption for the term 2019/20, which is 5.32 million MT lower when compared to the same period from the previous year. The CICC research also shows the same conclusion: abundant wheat reserve ratio maintains at a high level and is far above the average level for the world. Under this demand decline and high-level reservation situation, the conclusion that Communist China increases its wheat importation only to fill the gap of faked production data can be drawn. This way, it stabilizes the market supply and price, while at the same time, allowing it to hoard strategic resources as a reserve.

III. Soybean

The importation of soybean reached 9.6 million MT in May 2021, an increase of 29% compared with 7.45 million MT as for April of 2021, and a 2.5% increase compared to the 9.38 million MT from the same month last year. The cumulated soybean importation from January to May reached 38.2 million MT, a 12.8% increase compared with the 33.9 million MT from the same period last year. In comparison with 2020, the increase of soybean importation is slowing down during the period from January to April in 2021. The Western media attributes this to the rising price of U.S. soybeans and the falling price of the new harvested Brazil soybeans. However, a rapid surge for soybean importation can be observed in May 2021, and news from Reuters tells of two U.S. dealers’ story that an importer from China ordered at least eight ships of U.S. soybeans on June 18 of last year. That amounts to no less than 480 kMT, which is the most substantial deal of U.S. soybean purchasing in the last four and a half months from China. This information matches with the anonymous big-ticket buyer mentioned by Mile Guo.

IV. Rice

a)Rice Importation

Rice importation is at 330 kMT for May 2021, a 45.2% increase compared with the same period last year. At the same time, the cumulated importation from January to May is 2.25 million MT, which shows a 129.5% increase when compared to the same period last year. A popular opinion in Communist China, as stated in the Chinese Rice Industry Market Status and Future Development Analysis Report from the Chinese Institute of Foresight Industry, says that the total rice consumption in China is 194 million MT in 2019, an increase of 800 kMT, or 0.41%, while the production of rice is at 210 million MT. This difference clearly depicts the overproduction situation. Moreover, the surplus of rice is at 14 million MT for 2019, according to the report. Research by the CICC shares the same opinion of a high rice reservation level, which is far above the world’s average.

The conclusion here is that the rice surplus situation is in contradiction with the actual data of rice importation as of right now. From a social media’s perspective, the hybrid rice of Scientist Yuan Longping will not be propagandized once more if there is, in fact, a big rice reserve in Communist China.

b)Rice Exportation

The data from the General Administration of Customs Communist China is showing a gradually decreasing trend of rice exportation from the second half of 2020, but is bound to a slow increase in 2021. Does this demonstrate that the CCP is in urgent need of foreign currency and is therefore increasing its rice exportation? On the one hand, the CCP is importing a considerable amount of low-priced rice from the global market to help bridge the gap of rice supply and build up on the strategic resource. On the other hand, it is exporting significant amounts of good-qualitied rice in exchange of foreign currency, instead of keep the rice for the Chinese people. Article 36 of the Food Circulation Management Rules of the Communist China depicts a fancy vision: “The Nation encourage the development of a food producing economy, increase the level of high-quality food supply, and encourage leading enterprise in the food industry to provide safe and high-quality food product,” which is just a beautiful lie.



Translator: KillCCP/Sylvie

Disclaimer: This article only represents the author’s view. Gnews is not responsible for any legal risks.

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